Will Afghanistan Assist Turkey and the US Break the Ice?

Relations between Ankara and Washington have reached a historic nadir. Geopolitical decoupling, accumulating frustrations and proliferating crises outline the context. For a while now, Turkey has been in search of helpful geopolitical crises to remind the United States of its significance: conditions providing leverage for positive aspects on different fronts with out risking core Turkish pursuits. The Ukrainian disaster is a working example, the place Turkey adopts a pro-Ukrainian place and operates largely as a NATO energy. Ankara regards Afghanistan as one other geopolitical opening to fix ties with america.

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The largely mono-dimensional US-Turkey relationship revolves round geopolitics and safety, which can be the place the principle crises are situated. In Syria, as an illustration, every views the opposite’s native companions via the lens of terrorism. When Turkey acquired the Russian-made S-400 air protection system, Washington imposed CAATSA sanctions (beneath the Countering America’s Adversaries By way of Sanctions Act). Such developments have generated debate — each within the West and in Turkey — over Turkey’s place and future in Western establishments and particularly NATO.

After taking workplace in January, US President Joe Biden and his group initially gave Turkey the chilly shoulder. Turkey responded with a allure offensive, sending a stream of optimistic messages. For example, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan delivered an impassioned protection of the NATO alliance at its summit in June.

Simply as geopolitical decoupling drove them aside, Ankara seems to imagine {that a} convergence and cooperation responding to a significant geopolitical disaster can deliver Turkey and the United States nearer collectively once more, a minimum of to some extent. In different phrases, an instrumental geopolitical disaster has the potential to enhance the ambiance between the Turkish and the Individuals.

Level of Curiosity: Kabul Airport

This explains why Turkey was so keen to remain in Afghanistan when all its NATO allies had been getting ready to go away. Ankara is looking for nearer relations with the Taliban and nonetheless aspires to a task in operating Kabul airport, which is important for the Western diplomatic presence and Afghanistan’s connectivity with the remainder of the world. Turkey, Qatar and the Taliban are in talks over this matter.

Ankara hopes that the Taliban will allow Turkey to function the airport, very probably in partnership with Qatar. Ankara would really like its position to incorporate a safety dimension too, however the Taliban are very cautious and would need to decrease the safety side — assuming it agrees in any respect.

Ankara is presently exhibiting flexibility in its endeavors to safe a task in Afghanistan. President Erdogan has mentioned that Turkey may discover a bilateral cope with Afghanistan just like these it signed in 2019 with the Libyan authorities of nationwide accord on safety cooperation and maritime boundaries.

Twin Id and the Worth of Recognition

The obvious problem is that the Taliban will tie any Turkish position on the airport to recognition of its authorities, whereas Ankara wouldn’t need to be among the many first to take action. As a substitute, Turkey will want to cooperate with out official recognition, working in a grey zone. It’ll need to keep away from antagonizing Washington and shall be paying shut consideration to the stances adopted by the Individuals and different worldwide gamers. In Afghanistan, Turkey will proceed to capitalize on its twin Muslim/NATO id: the Muslim id geared towards Afghanistan, the NATO id Western-facing.

Erdogan’s gambit seems to be paying off. The tone of exchanges between Ankara and Washington is warming and the frequency of discussions is rising. Throughout his Senate Overseas Relations Committee affirmation listening to, Secretary of State Antony Blinken described Turkey as a “so-called strategic associate.” Now, he and different US officers name Turkey “an important NATO ally” and “invaluable partner in the region”. Whether or not this transformation in tone represents an actual thaw in relations stays to be seen. Afghanistan definitely has the potential to interrupt the ice, even it’s unlikely to usher in any deep transformation.

Home Pushback

President Erdogan’s push for the important position of airport safety supplier faces home political hostility. As rising numbers of Afghan refugees enter Turkey via Iran, virulent anti-refugee sentiment locations rising pressures on the federal government and erodes public assist for Ankara’s plans in Afghanistan. The opposition additionally flags the dangers to Turkish navy personnel.

Ankara may instrumentalize solidarity with the Turkic folks of Afghanistan and Central Asia — Uzbeks, Turkmens and different Turkic populations — to domesticate home political assist and situate Afghanistan inside the wider geopolitics of Central Asia and the Turkic world. Such nationalist language could backfire.

As a predominantly Pashtun group, the Taliban will dislike that narrative — as will China and Russia. In reality, till very lately Turkey was supporting the Northern Alliance and figures like Uzbek warlord Rashid Dostum in Afghanistan. Such a coverage of ethnic solidarity could be laborious to reconcile with overtures to the Taliban.

*[This article was originally published by the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), which advises the German government and Bundestag on all questions related to foreign and security policy.]

The views expressed on this article are the creator’s personal and don’t essentially replicate Truthful Observer’s editorial coverage.